Governing Framework
Flawed assumptions about human psychology are a central weakness of credibility assessment in refugee status decision-making.1 Psychology evidence 鈥 the scientific community鈥檚 best available information about how people in studied populations think and act 鈥 can improve these kinds of judgments. This evidence can help decision-makers to avoid a potentially fatal mistake: rejecting truthful testimony.2
The Baseline Paper Series addresses psychological responses that refugee status decision-makers commonly assume are too unusual to be believed. These papers make clear when the relevant body of empirical studies has established that these responses are, on the contrary, entirely unremarkable: 鈥榳ell within the range of normal human experience.鈥
If a certain way of thinking or acting is common enough among the people who have been studied, why should a claimant be disbelieved because they thought or acted this way? This evidence should push decision-makers to rethink or better support their reasons for concluding that a claimant is lying.
References
1 Researchers have for decades observed that decision-makers often rely on flawed psychological assumptions when they conclude that claimants are lying. For a recent review, see ASS Jarlner, ME Hertz, MA Heyl, T Gammeltoft-Hansen & WH Byrne, 鈥淐redibility as a fuzzy concept in refugee law: a systematic literature review鈥 (2026) Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, 1鈥31 . See e.g. L Affolter, 鈥淩egular matters: credibility determination and the institutional habitus in a Swiss asylum office鈥 (2021) 9:1 Comparative Migration Studies 1 ; E Bailey, Z Given-Wilson & A Memon, 鈥淧erceived Credibility of Asylum Claimants: The Role of Decision-Maker Affect and Asylum Seeker鈥檚 Emotions鈥 (2025) Psychology, Crime & Law 1鈥19 ; H Baillot, S Cowan & VE Munro, 鈥淪een but Not Heard? Parallels and Dissonances in the Treatment of Rape Narratives across the Asylum and Criminal Justice Contexts鈥 (2009) 36:2 Journal of Law and Society 195 ; H Baillot, S Cowan & VE Munro, 鈥淩eason to Disbelieve: Evaluating the Rape Claims of Women Seeking Asylum in the UK鈥 (2014) 10:1 International Journal of Law in Context 105鈥139 ; D Ballucci & S Ghebrai, 鈥(De)Constructing Credibility: Examining the Power of Childhood in Unaccompanied Refugee Decision-Making鈥 (2023) 21:3 Journal of Immigrant & Refugee Studies 291鈥304 ; SC Bishop, 鈥溾榃hat does a torture survivor look like?鈥 Nonverbal communication in US asylum interviews and hearings鈥 (2021) 15:1 Journal of International and Intercultural Communication 1 ; E Bodstr枚m, 鈥淎sylum Decisions as Performances: Intertextuality in Internal Credibility Assessment鈥 (2020) 32:4 International Journal of Refugee Law 623 ; E Bodstr枚m, 鈥溾楤ecause Migri Says So鈥: Legitimation in Negative Asylum Decisions in Finland鈥 (2020) 10:2 Nordic Journal of Migration Research 5 ; L Bradley & H Farber, 鈥淰irtually Incredible: Rethinking Deference to Demeanor When Assessing Credibility in Asylum Cases Conducted by Video Teleconference鈥 (2022) 36 Georgetown Immigration Law Journal 515; C Bohmer & A Shuman, 鈥淧roducing Epistemologies of Ignorance in the Political Asylum Application Process鈥 (2007) 14:5 Identities 603鈥629 ; JR Campbell, 鈥Examining Procedural Unfairness and Credibility Findings in the UK Asylum System鈥 (March 2020) 39 Refugee Survey Quarterly 56鈥75 ; A Chan, 鈥淓stablishing (Un)certainty: Language and Reproducing Suspicion in Forensic Medical Evaluations鈥 (2026) 41:2 Refuge 1 ; J Cohen, 鈥淨uestions of Credibility: Omissions, Discrepancies and Errors of Recall in the Testimony of Asylum Seekers鈥 (2001) 13:3 International Journal of Refugee Law 293 ; R Dowd, J Hunter, B Liddell, J McAdam, A Nickerson & R Bryant, 鈥淔illing Gaps and Verifying Facts: Assumptions and Credibility Assessment in the Australian Refugee Review Tribunal鈥 (2018) 30:1 International Journal of Refugee Law 71鈥103 ; H Evans Cameron, 鈥淩efugee Status Determinations and the Limits of Memory鈥 (2010) 22:4 International Journal of Refugee Law 469鈥511 ; H Evans Cameron, 鈥淩isk and the Reasonable Refugee: Exploring a Key Credibility Inference in Canadian Refugee Status Rejections鈥 (2023) 35:1 International Journal of Refugee Law 10鈥36 ; H Evans Cameron, 鈥淩isk Theory and 鈥楽ubjective Fear鈥: The Role of Risk Perception, Assessment, and Management in Refugee Status Determinations鈥 (2008) 20:4 International Journal of Refugee Law 567 ; H Evans Cameron, 鈥淪in of Omission: Exploring a Key Credibility Inference in Canadian Refugee Status Rejections鈥 (2023) 60:1 Osgoode Hall Law Journal 127鈥174 ; H Evans Cameron, J Herlihy & M Hynie, 鈥淚nvestigating deception findings in Canadian refugee status rejections: legal inferences and psychological assumptions鈥 (2025) 32 Psychiatry, Psychology and Law 949鈥975 ; H Evans Cameron, S Rehaag & K Friesen, 鈥淭he Effect of an 鈥楢ppearance, Presentation and Demeanour鈥 Instruction on Credibility and Deception Judgements in a Mock Refugee Hearing鈥 (2025) 37:1 Journal of Law and Social Policy 1 ; C Gerken, 鈥淐redibility, Trauma, and the Law: Domestic Violence-Based Asylum Claims in the United States鈥 (2022) 30:3 Feminist Legal Studies 255鈥280 ; Z Given-Wilson, J Herlihy & M Hodes, 鈥淭elling the story: A psychological review on assessing adolescents鈥 asylum claims鈥 (2016) 57:1 Canadian Psychology 16 ; Z Given-Wilson, J Herlihy & M Hodes, 鈥淎 review of adolescent autobiographical memory and the implications for unaccompanied asylum-seeking minors鈥 refugee determinations鈥 (2018) 23:4 Clinical Child Psychology and Psychiatry 635 ; PA Granhag, LA Stromwall & M Hartwig, 鈥淕ranting asylum or not? Migration Board personnel鈥檚 beliefs about deception鈥 (2005) 31:1 Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies 29 ; J Herlihy, P Scragg & S Turner, 鈥淒iscrepancies in autobiographical memories鈥攊mplications for the assessment of asylum seekers: repeated interviews study鈥 (2002) 324 British Medical Journal 324 ; J Herlihy, K Gleeson & S Turner, 鈥淲hat Assumptions about Human Behaviour Underlie Asylum Judgments?鈥 (2010) 22:3 International Journal of Refugee Law 351鈥366 ; J Herlihy & S Turner, 鈥淯ntested Assumptions: Psychological Research and Credibility Assessment in Legal Decision-Making鈥 (2015) 6 European Journal of Psychotraumatology 27380 ; M Hertz & AS Stage Jarlner, 鈥淭rans 鈥楨nough鈥 for Protection? Experimenting with Credibility in Refugee Status Determination鈥 (2025) 7 Frontiers in Human Dynamics ; M Holland, 鈥淪tories for Asylum: Narrative and Credibility in the United States鈥 Political Asylum Application鈥 (2018) 34:2 Refuge 28; J Hunter, L Pearson, M San Roque & Z Steel, 鈥淎sylum Adjudication, Mental Health and Credibility Evaluation鈥 (2013) 41:3 Federal Law Review 471鈥495 ; M Jacquemet, 鈥淎sylum and Superdiversity: The Search for Denotational Accuracy during Asylum Hearings鈥 (2015) 44 Language & Communication 72鈥81 ; L Johannesson, 鈥淭he Symbolic Life of Courts: How Judicial Language, Actions, and Objects Legitimize Credibility Assessments of Asylum Appeals鈥 (2023) 24 Journal of International Migration and Integration 791鈥809 ; O Jubany, 鈥淐onstructing Truths in a Culture of Disbelief: Understanding Asylum Screening from Within鈥 (2011) 26:1 International Sociology 74鈥94 ; M Kagan, 鈥淏elievable Victims: Asylum Credibility and the Struggle for Objectivity鈥 (2015) Georgetown Journal of International Affairs 904; M Kagan, 鈥淚s Truth in the Eye of the Beholder? Objective Credibility Assessment in Refugee Status Determination鈥 (2003) 17:3 Georgetown Immigration Law Journal 367鈥415 ; M Kagan, 鈥淩efugee Credibility Assessment and the 'Religious Imposter' Problem: A Case Study of Eritrean Pentecostal Claims in Egypt鈥 (2010) 43:5 Vanderbilt Journal of Transnational Law 1179; F Kendall, 鈥溾楥atch-22鈥? : The Assessment of Credibility in UK Asylum Applications" (2022) 2:1 New Sociological Perspectives 75 ; C Ludt, M Bj酶rnholt & B Niklasson, 鈥淪peaking the Unspeakable: Disclosures of Sexual and Gender-based Violence in Asylum Credibility Assessments鈥 (2022) 40:3 Nordic Journal of Human Rights 441 ; T Luker, 鈥淒ecision Making Conditioned by Radical Uncertainty: Credibility Assessment at the Australian Refugee Review Tribunal鈥 (2013) 25:3 International Journal of Refugee Law 502鈥534 ; D McDonald, 鈥淐redibility Assessment in Refugee Status Determination" (2014) 26:2 National Law School of India Review 115 ; D McDonald-Norman, 鈥淣o One to Bear Witness: Country Information and LGBTQ Asylum Seekers鈥 (2017) 33:2 Refuge 88鈥100 ; J Millbank, 鈥溾楾he Ring of Truth鈥: A Case Study of Credibility Assessment in Particular Social Group Refugee Determinations" (2009) 21:1 International Journal of Refugee Law 1 ; A Mosley, 鈥淩e-Victimization and the Asylum Process: Jimenez Ferreira v Lynch: Re-Assessing the Weight Placed on Credible Fear Interviews in Determining Credibility鈥 (2018) 36 Law & Inequality 315鈥344 ; S Rehaag, 鈥溾業 Simply do not Believe...鈥: A Case Study of Credibility Determinations in Canadian Refugee Adjudication" (2017) 38 Windsor Review of Legal and Social Issues 38 ; S Rehaag & H Evans Cameron, 鈥淓xperimenting with Credibility in Refugee Adjudication: Gaydar鈥 (2020) 9 Canadian Journal of Human Rights 1-34 ; J Rinaldi & S Fernando, "Queer Credibility in the Homonation-State: Interrogating the Affective Impacts of Credibility Assessments on Racialized Sexual Minority Refugee Claimants" (2019) 35:1 Refuge 24 ; L Rose & Z Given-Wilson, 鈥溾榃hat Is Truth?鈥 Negotiating Christian Convert Asylum Seekers鈥 Credibility鈥 (2021) 697:1 The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 221鈥235 ; H Rogers, S Fox & J Herlihy, 鈥淭he Importance of Looking Credible: The Impact of the Behavioural Sequelae of Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder on the Credibility of Asylum Seekers鈥 (2015) 21:2 Psychology, Crime & Law 139鈥155 ; H Selim, J Korkman, E Pirjatanniemi & J Antfolk, 鈥淎sylum claims based on sexual orientation: a review of psycho-legal issues in credibility assessments鈥 (2023) 29:10 Psychology, Crime & Law 1001 ; H Selim, J Korkman, P Nyn盲s, E Pirjatanniemi & J Antfolk, "A review of psycho-legal issues in credibility assessments of asylum claims based on religion" (2023) 30:6 Psychiatry Psychology & Law 760 ; H Selim, P Lindblad, J Vanto, J Skrifvars, A Alvesalo-Kuusi, J Korkman, E Pirjatanniemi & J Antfolk, "(In)credibly queer? Assessments of asylum claims based on sexual orientation" (2025) 30 Legal & Criminological Psychology 159 ; J Skrifvars, V Sui, J Antfolk, T van Veldhuizen, & J Korkman, 鈥淧sychological assumptions underlying credibility assessments in Finnish asylum determinations鈥 (2024) 76:1 Nordic Psychology 55 ; KE Smeda, "Truth or Dare: A Framework for Analyzing Credibility in Children Seeking Asylum" (2017) 50:2 Cornell International Law Journal 307 ; L Smith-Khan, 鈥淚ncorporating Sociolinguistic Perspectives in Australian Refugee Credibility Assessments: The Case of CRL18鈥 (2023) 24 Journal of International Migration and Integration 727鈥743 ; P Spinhoven, T Bean, L Eurelings-Bontekoe, "Inconsistencies in the self-report of traumatic experiences by unaccompanied refugee minors" (2006) 19:5 Journal of Traumatic Stress 663-73 ; K Tay, N Frommer, J Hunter, D Silove, L Pearson, MS Roque, R Redman, RA Bryant, V Manicavasagar & Z Steel, 鈥淎 Mixed-Method Study of Expert Psychological Evidence Submitted for a Cohort of Asylum Seekers Undergoing Refugee Status Determination in Australia鈥 (2013) 98 Social Science & Medicine 106鈥115 ; R Thomas, 鈥淎ssessing the Credibility of Asylum Claims: EU and UK Approaches Examined鈥 (2006) 8:1 European Journal of Migration & Law 79 ; H Tu啪insk谩, 鈥淭he Communicative Space: Painting the Evidence and Plausibility in Asylum Court Hearings鈥 (2025) 34:6 Social & Legal Studies 832 ; H Wikstr枚m & T Johansson, "Credibility Assessments as 'Normative Leakage': Asylum Applications, Gender and Class" (2013) 1:2 Social Inclusion 92-101 ; A Vogl, Judging Refugees: Narrative and Oral Testimony in Refugee Status Determination (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2024); A Vogl, 鈥淭elling Stories from Start to Finish: Exploring the Demand for Narrative in Refugee Testimony鈥 (2013) 22:1 Griffith Law Review 63鈥86&苍产蝉辫;; S Zisakou, 鈥淐redibility Assessment in Asylum Claims Based on Sexual Orientation by the Greek Asylum Service: A Deep-Rooted Culture of Disbelief鈥 (2021) 3 Frontiers in Human Dynamics 693308 .
2 See H Evans Cameron, Refugee Law鈥檚 Fact-Finding Crisis: Truth, Risk, and the Wrong Mistake (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2018)